Diving into today’s MLB DFS slate to uncover your best pitching plays.
If you’ve been reading this column since the start of the year, you’ll know that we’re a big proponent of sticking to the core principles that came out of a deep analysis of 2020 data. Don’t be afraid to pay up for pitching (both sites), and spending around $15,000 to $18,000 is often the optimal range in that department (DK).
We have a lot more games on tonight’s slate than we did last night as every team is in action tonight. We do have some rain in the forecast that we do need to keep a watch on as the day goes on. The games with rain chances are DET@BAL, CIN@ATL, MIL@CHC, and NYY@KC. The good news is with those games is I wasn’t particularly high on any of the pitchers in those games. Let’s move on to the pitchers that I do love tonight starting with
Mad Max
Max Scherzer is my favorite pitcher on this slate. The prize of the trade deadline looked excellent in his first start with the Dodgers. In that start, Scherzer allowed two runs in seven innings while striking out ten on his way to 32.15 fantasy points. That was the third straight game that Scherzer has pitched at least six innings and scored at least 19 DraftKings points and the sixth time in his past seven games with at least that many DraftKings points. For the season, Scherzer has an elite ERA of 2.75, an elite WHIP of 0.89, and an elite K rate of 34.5%. The match-up against the Phillies despite them being one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball is also one that I like as Scherzer has shut them down in his three previous starts against them. In those starts, Scherzer has allowed a total of three runs in 18.2 innings with 22 strikeouts. Scherzer has at least 21 DraftKings points in each of those starts.
Lefty coming off a bad start
After Scherzer, my next favorite pitcher on this slate is Sean Manaea. Manaea was awful in his last start against the Padres allowing five runs in just 4.1 innings of action but his two prior starts were some of the best you will see. In those two starts, Manaea allowed one total run while striking out 22 in 13 innings of action. Manaea produced at least 34 fantasy points in each of those starts. While I am not quite sure that we see those kinds of performances from Manaea in this one I do expect a very good start from him as the Indians who he faces tonight are not very good against left-handed pitching. This season Cleveland ranks 25th in team OPS and team wOBA against left-handed pitching while ranking 17th in team ISO against them.
Take a chance on Carrasco
If you are looking for a cheaper pitcher on this slate I don’t mind taking a chance on Carlos Carrasco tonight. Carrasco is only $8,000 in salary on DraftKings and $7,900 in salary on FanDuel and has looked solid in his first two starts this season in his return from injury. In those starts, Carrasco has allowed three earned runs while striking out nine in 8.1 innings of action. Carrasco should start to pitch a bit deeper into games in each of his starts and is in a positive match-up tonight against a Nationals team that is starting to feel the effects of trading away most of their team. Over the past week, the Nationals rank 18th in team wOBA and 17th in team ISO.
Target the Rockies away from Coors
My favorite cheap pitcher on this slate is Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi does not have great numbers on the season and frankly probably isn’t a good pitcher anymore but anytime the Rockies are away from Coors I am going to target pitchers against them. The Rockies just suck when they leave Coors. This season in away games they rank dead last in team ISO, team OPS, team wOBA, and team WRC+ while having the fourth-highest team K rate at 25.8%.
Others to consider
I am not going to go into detail on the rest of these players but the following pitchers are also pitchers that I really like on this slate and will have some exposure to if MME.
- Alex Wood
- Logan Gilbert
- Ross Stripling (DraftKings only)
That will do it for our version of the Pitching Primer today. Best of luck in your contests!
