PGA Betting Picks: Best Prop Bets for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (2021)

With the 2021 Olympics now come and gone for those golfers involved, 19 pros have returned from Japan and will head straight to Memphis (14-hour time difference) for this week’s WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Featuring a purse comparable to a major and 550 FedEx Cup points at stake, those involved should have plenty of motivation to go low.

Let’s take a closer look and see where the value remains.

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Top-20 Finish

Daniel Berger (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

This line has gotten as high as -200 at other shops and for very good reason. In the four events he has played here, Berger has 2 wins and a solo 2nd, in addition to a missed cut in 2018, one of his worst years on tour. The definition of a course horse, but there’s more.

In his last three events this season, Berger has finished T7, T35, and T8, with his two top 10s coming at the US Open and The Open Championship.

From a metrics standpoint, he comes into this one, ranking inside the top 10 in scoring average (69.874) and Greens in Regulation (70.34%) and 14th in birdie average.  Of the players in the field, he also ranks inside the top 5 in SG: Approach L24 Rounds, Proximity 75-100 yds, and Proximity 100-125 yards, all aligning precisely with what we will see here this weekend.

Matchup

Brooks Koepka (vs. Collin Morikawa) (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

In an event that should have a major-like feel to it, it’s hard to look away from Koepka, especially in this matchup. The 2019 winner of the event, where he shot four straight days at 68 on the way to a 16-under finish, Koepka comes into this one rested off a few results worth mentioning.

In his last five events, Koepka has finished T6 or better in four (one missed cut at the Palmetto), including a T2 at the PGA Championship, T4 at the US Open, and T6 at the Open Championship. Coming into this week, Koepka ranks 3rd in the field in SG: OTT and 7th in SG: Approach.

On the other side of this matchup, Morikawa is coming into this one fresh off a disappointing finish in Tokyo, losing in a playoff to finish T4 and just outside the medals. That after the high of winning The Open Championship in runaway fashion and finishing T4 at the US Open just weeks prior. I think the travel combined with the emotion of it all catches up with Morikawa, and while he’s still someone who can go low here, despite what the metrics say of late, I think Brooks gets the best of him.