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Saturday, May 28, 2022

Performance dependent on game script and Ryan Tannehill

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, which means just seven games are remaining in the season. Time is limited to capitalize on fantasy football and betting value. Here at Pro Football Network, we’re diving into each individual player taking the field this weekend and seeing what values might exist. Today, we’ll look at A.J. Brown’s DFS value and whether any prop bets are worth taking.

A.J. Brown’s DFS value vs. Bengals

Brown checks in at $6,200 on the DraftKings weekend slate, which strikes me as a fair price. Brown is a viable option in DFS lineups because we know what his ceiling is. He certainly did not have a great season, averaging just 13.9 PPR fantasy points per game. As a little fun tidbit, A.J. Brown was the lowest-scoring “Brown” this season by ppg. He finished behind Antonio Brown, Marquise Brown, and even Amon-Ra St. Brown.

While A.J. did have a down year, he also had some massive weeks. He scored 27.3 fantasy points in Week 7, 31.5 points in Week 8, and 31.5 points in Week 16. The problem with Brown was he didn’t do much else.

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This week, Brown gets a Bengals defense that was average against wide receivers, allowing the 17th-most fantasy points to the position. Ultimately, this may come down to game script. Ryan Tannehill averaged 28.5 pass attempts in wins and 37.8 pass attempts per game in losses.

Derrick Henry is set to return this week, and we know the Titans want to run the ball. They finished the regular season with the third-highest run rate in the league. For Brown to hit his ceiling, the Titans will need to get into a shootout. Against the explosive Bengals offense, it’s certainly possible. While I wouldn’t advise a Titans stack with Tannehill, using Brown as the bring-back option in a Bengals stack makes a good amount of sense.

A.J. Brown prop bets this weekend

Brown’s receiving yards total opened at 72.5 (-115) on Draftkings. In his 13 games played this season, Brown only went over that number four times.

The Bengals and Titans have this weekend’s lowest total at 47. Ultimately, this may come down to game script. Ryan Tannehill averaged 28.5 pass attempts in wins and 37.8 in losses. While the Bengals certainly have a good chance to win, I’d be surprised if they generated a large enough lead where the Titans had to abandon the run. This game should remain close.

We know Brown has explosive upside as evidenced by his three huge games this season. Could that happen this week? Of course. However, I have a lean toward the under here. It’s not a high confidence play, but definitely preferable to the over.

Brown’s receptions total opened at 5.5 (-115) on Draftings. This one goes hand-in-hand with his receiving yardage total. If he goes over one, he is likely to go over the other. It’s certainly more likely Brown can go over 72 receiving yards without surpassing 5 receptions than him going over 5 receptions without reaching 73 yards. With that said, I like the under on both, but would only bet the one I felt more confident about.

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