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Sunday, August 14, 2022

MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays, and Top Stack for July 4

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Gavin Sheets ($2,200): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox

With the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate, Sheets is the perfect low-priced bargain option to complete your lineups.

Sheets has a +3.38 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, including five double-digit DraftKings point performances.

His .224 average and .286 xwOBA on the season will not turn any heads, but Sheets has been trending up over the last couple of weeks. He faces Dylan Bundy tonight, who is 4-4 with a 4.71 ERA on the season.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Darin Ruf ($2,600): First Baseman, San Francisco Giants

Ruf may be an unlikely bargain candidate, but he makes an interesting low-budget dart throw on tonight’s slate.

He is batting .222 on the year with six home runs. However, he performs much better against left-handers with a .384 wOBA and .262 ISO.

The Giants will square off with left-hander Madison Bumgarner in Arizona. The best days seem far in the past for Bumgarner, who is 3-8 with a 3.63 ERA this season.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Alek Manoah ($9,300 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel) at Oakland Athletics

Manoah has the highest salary on the slate but by far the highest ceiling projection. His 9-2 record and 2.09 ERA showcase the incredible season he is having.

Manoah has scored over 19 DraftKings points in 12 of 15 starts. Tonight, he faces an Athletics team with the lowest implied run total on the slate and the lowest team batting average on the season.

Look for Manoah to make good on his high price tag with another standout performance.


Hitter

Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Acuna Jr. missed a few games recently with a foot injury but returned to a full-time role in the Braves’ last series in Cincinnati.

Acuna Jr. has five double-digit DraftKings point totals in his last seven games. He is in the top 5% of hitters with a .403 wOBA on the season, according to Baseball Savant.

The Braves face right-hander Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals tonight in Atlanta. Hudson is 6-4 with a 3.83 ERA but has one of the lower strikeout rates in the majors. We know anything can happen when Acuna Jr. makes contact. He will be a popular upside pick on today’s slate.

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Mets. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.

The Mets have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate tonight in Cincinnati. Rookie right-hander Hunter Greene will take the mound for the Reds, who is 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA in 15 starts this season.

Florida alum Pete Alonso is blossoming in his fourth major league season with the Mets. He leads the league with 69 RBI and is near the top in xSLG and wOBA. Despite a -1.12 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, Alonso is the highlight of the stack.

In his second season in New York, Francisco Lindor is below his career averages at the plate but does perform better against right-handed pitching. He has a .341 wOBA and .207 ISO in that split this season.

Veteran outfielder Starling Marte is still getting it done 11 years into his major league career. He is batting .284 with a .346 wOBA this season. He has two 18+ DraftKings point games in a row and a +2.23 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil round out tonight’s top stack. Nimmo has seen his salary rise by $800 since mid-June, but he has gone cold over the last couple of weeks. He has just one double-digit DraftKings point game since June 16.

McNeil is happy to see a right-hander on the mound tonight. He has a .341 wOBA and .152 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

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