It’s Sunday, and that means we’ve got a jam-packed slate with plenty of games to choose from in the afternoon and so many valuable lines out there that it’s hard to pick just a few. With that said, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mariners ML (-140)
Frankly, I’m shocked to see this line and I expect it to close around -155. The Seattle Mariners have competent bats and a talented roster, hitting at an above-average clip by all metrics over the last two weeks and showcasing power with plenty of walks. They’re playing some inspired baseball with the playoffs within reach, and if not for a disastrous Diego Castillo performance on Saturday they’d be looking at an easy sweep of the Rangers.
I think the Mariners will get their revenge here against a whimpering Rangers team. Texas has been downright awful over the last two weeks with a 44 wRC+ — last in the league by a wide margin — and just four home runs to show for on the active roster aside from Jonah Heim’s surprising three. Joey Gallo is now a Yankee, Nick Solak is in Triple-A, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa can’t hit for average anymore and Adolis Garcia looks like another Eric Thames. Things are rough offensively for the Rangers.
That leaves me no choice but to back Marco Gonzales, who is awful but also has really just been victimized by the home run this year and has been fine elsewhere. Nothing about the Rangers scares you, except for the thought of watching Mike Foltynewicz pitch.
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Under 9.5 (-110)
I understand why the oddsmakers don’t want to trust two pitchers with essentially no big-league experience here, but you have to consider how poorly both offenses are hitting. The A’s have not only been in a backslide against lefties but own just an 88 wRC+ over the past two weeks with a ton of strikeouts. The Angels have been even worse with the second-worst wRC+ in the league, a dangerously low walk rate and next to nothing in the power department.
Reid Detmers, the No. 56 prospect in baseball, should definitely do his part here. His 15.9 strikeouts per nine this year in the minors is downright insane, and he’s done nothing but dominate just about everywhere he’s gone, from his stellar final two years at Louisville and his fire first season in the minors after being selected in the first round of the 2020 MLB Draft.
Daulton Jefferies is less of a sure thing, with a disastrous two-inning debut last year where he allowed five earned runs and a brutal season at Triple-A this year. With that said, he was cruising through the A’s system prior to the pandemic and should be able to build his confidence back against a truly bad lineup.
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Red Sox +150
This line is a bit odd to me. I realize Shane McClanahan is supremely talented, throwing gas and flashing great strikeout stuff from the left side but I’m not ready to pay this kind of premium to back him at home. He’s still been very average with a 101 ERA+ and has struggled with homers at times this year.
He’s going to be in for a tough test against a strong Red Sox lineup, and that .384 xwOBA on contact isn’t the easiest number to look at, nor is his 8.3% walk rate. The Red Sox have walked almost 9% of the time over the last 30 days with a low 22.8% strikeout rate. Playing the numbers, if the Sox put the ball in play as they have, McClanahan could be in for a bit of trouble.
Nick Pivetta may not be good, but at least his xERA leaves room for hope that things will turn for him. He misses enough bats to be a nuisance for the Rays and did spin six shutout innings at The Trop in June. The value is on the road dog.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
