The first tournament on the schedule post-Olympics is the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational. TPC Southwind had been a regular stop on the PGA Tour before becoming a WGC stop three years ago. The Par 70 layout measures more than 7,200 yards and has some of the smaller greens on tour. With over $10 million in the purse and only 66 golfers in the field, it should be a fun race to see who walks away with the last big winner’s check before the playoffs.
With the small but strong field, we are seeing some major championship-type odds on winner bets as well as soft pricing on DraftKings. I’m going to target players who are on top of their game heading into this week, as well as players that perform well at TPC Southwind and similar courses. The players who competed in the Olympics are gaining time as they return to the United States from Japan, but some may suffer from burnout after competing in such a high-profile event.
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Louis Oosthuizen (20-1 to win) has been on fire over the last two months. He still hasn’t been able to find that elusive win, but his form suggests it could be any week now. He followed up a 2nd and 3rd at the U.S. Open and Open Championship, respectively, with a tie for 2nd at the 3M Open. Over his last five tournaments, he has averaged over 4.7 strokes gained on approach. If he had been as lights out on the greens at the 3M as he had been leading up to it, he would have chalked up the win. He finished T6 here last year and is poised to win.
Daniel Berger (22-1) looked to be headed for a big year after winning at the AT&T Pro-Am at Pebble Beach. An injury before the Honda Classic hurt his game a bit in the middle of the season. He looks to be back in health and form lately. He has gained strokes on approach in his last 9 measured tournaments. He has averaged 3.8 strokes gained on approach over his last five tournaments. He hasn’t been quite as good off the tee since the PGA Championship, but he has an excellent record here, and I expect him to be comfortable on the tee boxes.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (33-1) had struggled with his approach shots for a good chunk of the season. While he gained strokes off the tee at a higher rate than he has over his career, the iron game was concerning. When you look at his raw numbers coming into this week, it may seem a bit concerning still. Still, you have to factor in his solid performances at the Scottish Open and the Open Championship, which both weren’t measured and counted for his statistics. He gained 3.7 strokes on approach at the U.S. Open and then followed that up with a T2 at the Scottish Open and a top 25 at the Open Championship, where you know he had to be solid tee to green. He finished T4 and T6 here the last two years and should be chomping at the bit to contend for a win.
Shane Lowry (50-1) has gained strokes on approach in seven straight, measured tournaments. He finished 7th in the Open Championship, where his statistics weren’t measured, and contended for a medal at the Olympics before settling for an even-par final round. He hasn’t played particularly well here, but it’s hard to ignore his ball-striking stats and form. He does have a WGC win under his belt to go with his Open Championship.
DFS Plays
With the soft pricing, there will be many different ways to put together a lineup this week. I’m not seeing a standout value like Mito Pereira last week at the Olympics. But there are still options I like.
Brooks Koepka ($10,600) is a value play as the betting favorite this week. He is in excellent form and looks healthy, heading into the final stretch of the season. His health looked excellent if you caught his Instagram dancing antics during the Olympic break. With a win and a T2 in the last two years, it’s safe to say he is still comfortable playing at TPC Southwinds since it became a WGC. Ownership will be heavy, so a sneaky pivot to Xander Schauffele or Collin Morikawa is interesting. Both are young enough not to feel the effects of the travel and are in excellent form.
Jordan Spieth ($10,400) may be a forgotten man this week. He doesn’t have the best record lately at the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational, but that coincides with his poor overall form. Now that he is arguably one of the three best players of the year, he should be in play at this price. He is 2nd in the field in strokes gained total, and 2nd in DraftKings points average over his last 36 rounds. Tough to ignore at this price.
Dustin Johnson ($10,200) is a very sneaky play this week. His missed cut at the 3M Open will have many skipping him this week, but he really likes TPC Southwind. He had a dominant win here in 2016 and hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 in his last 5 starts here. He is second to Brooks Koepka in total strokes gained at the tournament.
Louis Oosthuizen ($9,600) See above.
Daniel Berger ($9,200) See above.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,800) See above.
Webb Simpson ($8,500) is very low priced this week. I can’t see fading him after it looked like he found his game at the Open Championship.
Abraham Ancer ($8,300) finished T15 here last season and had a T12 at the Olympics in his last outing. His game fits TPC Southwind well, and I like him at this price.
Harris English ($7,600) has won here in 2013 and is in the middle of a solid run of golf. His price is still low because of the strength of the field, and I will look to take advantage of that.
Tyrrell Hatton ($7,400) is priced too low to fade even with his poor recent form. I’m not saying to make him part of your core, but definitely pivot to him and sprinkle him in.
Sergio Garcia ($7,300) is on a great run of ball striking. What else is new? Well, the over seven strokes he lost on the greens at the 3M is a bit concerning, but I’m not too worried.
Billy Hoschel ($7,100) has played consistently well at TPC Southwind and will play at this price. I don’t love his upside if you are doing a single entry, but he should be used if you are firing multiple GPP lineups.
Sam Burns ($6,900) is an interesting play at this price. He is inside the top 15 in strokes gained on approach over his last 36 rounds and is well inside the top 20 in DraftKings points over that same time. He was so low priced at the Open Championship that many played and struggled over the weekend after barely making the cut. I think he will bounce back this week as he makes a push for the FedEx Cup Playoffs in a few weeks.
GPP options for Studs and Duds lineups
Phil Mickelson ($6,600) has a T2 here last season and has finished runner up here two other times during his illustrious career. His form isn’t great since his win at the PGA Championship, but it’s a no-cut event, and he can pile up the DraftKings points when he has it going.
Kevin Na ($6,500) is more of an even-steven play here. I don’t see a ton of upside with his injuries this year and the fact that he is dead last in the field in strokes gained off the tee, but his putting and around the green game keep him consistently inside the top 35 here.
Aaron Rai ($6,300) grabbed a top 20 at the Open Championship and has two other top 25s in WGC events.
Min Woo Lee ($6,200) is a very intriguing player. He won the Scottish Open against a really solid field and did show well at the WGC Workday at the Concession.
One and Done
Brooks Koepka and Daniel Berger will be heavily played, but I will be forced to go with Louis Oosthuizen since I skipped him at the 3M Open. Matthew Fitzpatrick is also in consideration if you haven’t used him.
My stats come from my go-to site for golf statistics and lineup building: FantasyNational.com. I look forward to bringing you the very best in fantasy golf coverage and betting at The Athletic. I look forward to interacting with all of you and maybe building some winning lineups and betting cards together. Please leave your questions below or hit me up on Twitter @CoachEsser.
(Photo of Louis Oosthuizen: David Berding / Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)
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