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Corbin Burnes ($11,000)
At his lowest salary point since July 1st, Milwaukee’s ace currently rates sixth overall with a 32.6 fantasy expectation and third in strikeouts with a 6.3 mark against a St. Louis Cardinals‘ lineup with a 22.4% K-rate and a .323 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
While some may be concerned with his overall projection, Burnes has been in stellar form in his past seven appearances with a 3.15 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP) and a 33.1% strikeout percentage while also recording 14 shutout innings and 21 strikeouts against the Cardinals in two previous starts this season.
Jacob deGrom ($10,800)
Since his return on August 2nd, deGrom has produced fantastic results in his two starts this season, accounting for an outstanding 1.00 xFIP, a 26.7% swinging strike rate, and a 50.0% strikeout percentage.
Considering his underrated opportunity versus a Philadelphia Phillies‘ unit with seven projected hitters with K-rates over 21.5% and contract rates under 75.5%, it’s not surprising the Mets’ hard-throwing right-hander ranks second among Saturday’s 22 pitchers with 6.89 strikeouts and third overall with 35.5 FanDuel point projection even with a potential pitch count (76 pitches in his last start).
Aaron Nola ($10,400)
Despite today’s tough matchup versus a New York Mets‘ team with a .331 wOBA and a 21.5% strikeout percentage, Nola still ranks first overall with a 39.2 fantasy projection and 7.47 expected strikeouts.
At his median salary in the past two months after a 3.7% discount, the 29-year old offers the most potential value among today’s four pitchers over 10k with a 3.77 value rating and overall matchup-proof seasonal form with a 2.99 xFIP and a 27.9% strikeout rate through 144.2 innings.
Yu Darvish ($10,100)
San Diego’s veteran is another elite option to consider versus a Washington Nationals‘ lineup accounting for a favorable 25.2% K-rate and an advantageous 3.3 expected run total.
In his last seven starts, Darvish has found his groove with a 2.84 xFIP and a 30.6% K-rate through 46.0 innings while also recording seven or more strikeouts in 71% of these appearances.
At his lowest salary point since July 2nd, the 35-year old right-hander currently rates fourth overall with a 33.4 FanDuel point expectation and fifth in strikeouts with a 6.25 mark.
Despite yesterday’s underwhelming three-run performance, the Diamondbacks are an important decision point with a 6.5 expected run total versus Jose Urena.
Through 44.2 innings this season, Colorado’s veteran has pitched extremely poorly, recording a 5.17 xFIP, a 7.0% swinging strike rate, and a scary 8.4% opposing barrel percentage.
To best attack his struggles versus batters from the opposing side of the plate (5.52 xFIP in 357.2 career innings), ideal Arizona combinations should first include Ketel Marte (.323 expected wOBA, 6.1% barrel rate), Daulton Varsho (.422 expected slugging, 10.1% barrel rate), and Jake McCarthy (36.5% hard hit rate) while Christian Walker (.496 expected slugging, 13.3% barrel rate), Emmanuel Rivera (9.6% barrel rate, .444 expected slugging), Carson Kelly (6.9% barrel rate), and Jordan Luplow (9.8% barrel rate) add pop from the right side.
While Keller isn’t the worst pitcher on today’s slate when examining his 4.34 xFIP through 119.1 innings this season, Los Angeles’ bats from the left side are an easy way to exploit his main weakness (4.58 xFIP in 295.1 career innings).
Main Dodgers’ correlations should include their best hitter in Freddie Freeman (10.2% barrel percentage, .548 expected slugging) while Max Muncy (15% barrel rate, .335 expected wOBA), Gavin Lux (.331 expected wOBA, 6.1% barrel rate), Cody Bellinger (8.7% barrel percentage), and Joey Gallo (17.9% barrel rate) profile well enough for stacking.
After a ten-run explosion on Friday night, San Diego’s revamped offense has another opportunity for sustained success against Washington’s veteran Anibal Sanchez.
In his third year pitching for the Nationals, Sanchez has profiled as a well-below average starter, recording an ugly 5.37 xFIP and a 9.9% walk rate in 25.0 innings this season.
To best attack Sanchez’s unique reverse splits (5.79 xFIP in 2020, 6.54 xFIP in 2022), Manny Machado (9.6% barrel rate, .443 expected slugging), Brandon Drury (11.6% barrel rate, 430 expected slugging), and Austin Nola (41.7% hard hit rate, .257 expected average) rate best while Juan Soto (12.5% barrel rate, .532 expected slugging) and Josh Bell (.449 expected slugging, .362 expected wOBA) provide additional upside.