DraftKings Tennis DFS Core Plays & Cheat Sheet – August 4, 2021 (8/4/21) – FantasyCruncher.com DFS Articles & Insights

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Reilly Opelka: $9,600 (vs. Galan)

I always need to make the note when rostering Reilly Opelka that any match truly could be a loss. Opelka is incredibly streaky and has let me down as a DFS player too many times to count. That being said, despite looking at his box score and seeing some recent single matches losses, Opelka is fresh off a doubles title in Atlanta – Opelka fell in the Quarter-finals against fellow America Taylor Fritz in a three-set grinder in which all three sets went to tiebreakers. However, in Opelka’s last four singles matches, he has fired at least 19 aces with two of those being 25 or more. In the loss to Fritz, Opelka still managed 51.20 fantasy points and his loss to Millman back in early June netted him 49.55 fantasy points. So as long as Opelka gets a match to a third-set even in a loss, his floor in incredibly high with his 21.18 Ace%. Opelka received a bye into this round where he will face 113th ranked Daniel Galan. Galan has had an average year at 9-9, last playing in the Olympics where he fell to Alexander Zverev 6-2, 6-2. Including all levels, Galan is 23-20 and 5-4 on hard courts this year, though Opelka carries a 150 point elo advantage over Galan on the surface. Galan did pull an upset of his own to get here, defeating Tommy Paul in straight sets and beating him while being able to break Paul’s serve three times. Opelka’s serve on the other hand is a different beast altogether and as long as Opelka holds serve, he likely is in line for a win. I don’t see Galan defeating back-to-back American’s on home soil. Add in that Opelka opened this match as a -290 favorite and has the highest Ace upside on this slate, if we get a straight-set victory, Opelka is looking at a near 80 point fantasy day. But, as always, please revert back to the first sentence of this write-up as I am just trying to capture the ceiling here.

Elias Ymer: $5,800 (vs. Millman)

We are getting very good value here on Ymer, as the betting odds weren’t released when DraftKings released their pricing. We have seen some DraftKings errors before in the past when they essentially try to “guess” the betting odds, but this looks like a bit of a miss on their part – albeit Ymer still is an underdog here. At the price of $5,800 though, we get Elias Ymer at just +115 against John Millman, which realistically should put his price way closer to the $7,200-$7,800 range. Ymer has struck some upsets recently, especially here in Washington with an opening-round with over Jordan Thompson. John Millman hasn’t exactly been in great form either and he is fresh back from Tokyo for the Olympics, where he lost in his second match to Davidovich Fokina. So over Millman’s last five matches, we see the Aussie pull in four losses and really only one of them to a higher-ranked name in Bautista Agut. Millman is just 2-5 on the year on hard courts, while Ymer is 4-3. Ymer has run through qualifying here and as mentioned pulled a big opening round upset. I view John Millman as an easier matchup than Jordan Thompson was and Millman is one a bit of a cold streak himself. I’ll take Ymer’s current form at his price against Millman’s form and his poor hard court play this season. This one probably goes three sets, but it is going to be hard to get away from the price here.

Cheat Sheet