Week 2 was not kind to my college football projection model, but luckily for us, the season is far from over. Hopefully that’s the worst week of the season and we jump back on the winning side of things here in Week 3. If you tailed last week, we had some bad losses (Texas A&M and Nebraska), but also some losses that I thought had a chance of getting to the window (Vanderbilt and SMU). Either way, things didn’t bounce our way and we move on to the next week.
Last week’s record: 2-7, -5.73 units
Season record: 5-9, -4.38 units, -29.4% ROI
This week’s slate is lacking quality matchups and, honestly, the board didn’t have too much value as a few games have moved quickly through key numbers to wipe away any value. My model ended up with six bets and a couple more to keep an eye on as the week progresses. Best of luck!
Week 3 college football best bets
Please make sure to shop around at various sportsbooks for the best possible number. Over the course of the season, a half point here or five cents there will add up.
Worst line to bet is the final number that I would make a bet at. For example, if I bet under 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not make that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.
All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted. All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Air Force -9.5 (-110) vs. Utah State
My numbers make this game closer to two touchdowns than single digits so this is an easy choice here. Last year these two met and Air Force ran for 264 yards in Logan. I expect more of the same with the Falcons at home. And do not sleep on this Air Force defense because it is quite good.
Worst line to bet: Air Force -9.5 (-110)
LSU -10 (-105) at Mississippi State
I think Mississippi State is a total fraud. They needed overtime to get past Arizona last week when they were plus-four in turnovers! That’s not a recipe for a good team. LSU, on the other hand, might be a little underrated. Sure, the Tigers got demolished in the second half against Florida State, but they were right there at half time. I’m willing to buy back in on LSU this week.
Worst line to bet: LSU -10 (-110)
BYU +8.5 (-110) at Arkansas
I’m not in love here as I’m not super high on BYU, but the numbers are what they are. And the reason for the edge here likely has a lot to do with Arkansas’ poor performance against Kent State last week. Kent State is the worst team in the country per my projections and the Arkansas offense was struggling to move the ball with consistency. I’m not one to make much of “terrible spots” but Arkansas has a road trip with LSU next week, too.
Worst line to bet: BYU +7.5 (-110)
Syracuse -2.5 (-115) at Purdue
I faded Purdue in Week 1. I backed Purdue in Week 2. Now I’m fading Purdue in Week 3. Some weird market adjustments happening with the Boilermakers, but I think they’re outclassed here. Maybe Virginia Tech is really bad (that’s why they’re in the lines to watch category this week), but Fresno needed two overtimes to beat Eastern Washington last week so that home loss for Purdue looks worse and worse. Meanwhile Syracuse hasn’t played anybody so far, but the Orange have been really impressive in both wins. I think this is a team to back for the next few weeks.
Worst line to bet: Syracuse -3 (-110)
Florida +7 (-115) vs. Tennessee
I don’t love this Florida team, but I am willing to take a full touchdown against Tennessee’s offense. I’m just not a Joe Milton believer. Sure, when he makes plays it’s electric, but there is a consistency issue. Some places have ticked down under a touchdown, but BetMGM is still hanging a +7 with a little juice. I’m willing to pay the price.
Worst price to bet: Florida +7 (-115)
Arizona State +3 (-105) vs. Fresno State
It’s painful to go back on Arizona State, but I think it’s more painful to be laying points with Fresno State right now. As I mentioned earlier, Fresno State needed two overtimes to take down Eastern Washington last week and that’s a big data point heading into this game. This should be closer to a pick ’em.
Worst line to bet: Arizona State +3 (-110) or Arizona ML +120
Lines to watch
Missouri vs. Kansas State
Missouri looked bad last week, but I think this could be a little bit of a buy-low spot. Unfortunately the line is +4.5 or +5 right now and I’m not diving in without a key number. If this gets to +6, I think Missouri is worth a half play.
- Missouri +6 (-110) or better (to win 0.5 units)
Virginia Tech at Rutgers
There has been a ton of movement in the direction of Rutgers this week as this game even touched -7 for a hot minute after opening -3 at Circa Sports. I think a full touchdown is too many here even with Rutgers looking impressive so far. If that number pops up again, I think Virginia Tech is worth a play.
- Virginia Tech +7 (-110) or better
(Photo of Montrell Johnson Jr.: James Gilbert / Getty Images)
