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Tuesday, July 5, 2022

Baseball Prop Picks & Predictions Friday 5/27

There is a 14-game MLB slate being played tonight. It is Friday of Memorial Day weekend, and this is the time of year when sports fans alike start turning their attention more closely to baseball. There are so many interesting matchups tonight, that it would not be difficult to think of three to five prop bets one might consider making in each game tonight. To help sort things out, OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips when it comes to making MLB predictions for today, Friday, May 27. Below, one will find two strikeout props, one home run prop and one total base prop for the best MLB prop bets today.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Trevor Rogers O/U 5.5 K’s (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

Trevor Rogers pitches tonight against the Atlanta Braves, an interesting team to target for strikeout props. Atlanta strikes out more than any other team (26.5%), but it also has the sixth-highest ISO (.165), too. In other words, it is a dangerous offense, but provides strikeout upside to pitchers as well. This season, Rogers has a 20.9% strikeout rate, much lower than his career 27.3% strikeout rate. He also has a career than his career xFIP (4.16 this season vs. 3.67 career), and higher HR/9 (1.49 this season vs. 0.78 career). Based on his career strikeout rate, it would take between five and 5.1 innings pitched to go over this prop. Using this season’s strikeout rate, it would take between 6.1 and 6.2 innings to go over. In his two starts against Atlanta, he has nine strikeouts in nine innings. This all comes down to whether he can last long enough without giving up too many runs to Atlanta. The Awesemo model projects Rogers for 6.4 strikeouts and gives him a 63% chance of going over the total for a 38% expected ROI.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Trevor Rogers OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)

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Kyle Bradish O/U 4.5 K’s (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

Kyle Bradish is on the bump against the Red Sox tonight. Bradish has a 24.8% strikeout rate this season, and although his 5.74 ERA looks high, his xFIP is a respectable 3.64. The issue for Bradish is when he misses, he gets hit hard. He allows a hard-hit rate of 41.1% and he also allowed 2.03 HR/9. Bradish is striking out 1.01 batters per inning this season. The question is: can he stay in the game for five innings? Boston does not have a high strikeout rate, as it has the 21st-highest in strikeout rate, but neither does St. Louis (it has the lowest strikeout rate), and Bradish struck out 11 Cardinals batters in seven innings pitched just a couple weeks ago.

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 Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Kyle Bradish OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+125)

Jared Walsh O/U 0.5 Home Runs (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM

Last night, the Shohei Ohtani home run prop was priced too well given the odds and Ohtani, unfortunately, it did not come through. Tonight, another Angel is the best home run prop of the night, and that is Jared Walsh. Walsh has nine home runs in 43 games played, along with a .221 ISO. He is facing Alek Manoah, a great young pitcher that is pitching a little over his head at the moment given his xFIP is 3.79 and 1.62 ERA. The Awesemo model gives Walsh a 19% chance of hitting a home run, while the implied odds of the sportsbook is 15.4%, making this a good bet.

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Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Jared Walsh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550)

Aaron Judge O/U 1.5 Total Bases (Claim FREE $200 on BetMGM)

Aaron Judge is facing Tampa Bay Rays left-handed pitcher Jeffrey Springs tonight. Springs is off to a great start this season with a 3.21 xFIP, a 27% strikeout rate, and allowing just 0.33 HR/9. Over his career, he is allowing 1.32 HR/9 and a 33.3% hard-hit rate. He is not an elite pitcher but likely average to above average. Judge, on the other hand, is elite. He has a .405 wOBA and .286 ISO against left-handed pitching in his career. This season, his ISO against left-handed pitching is .330. To find this prop at plus-money odds is amazing.

Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

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