Aaron Rodgers: Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

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When it comes to Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, he is an all-time elite fantasy football quarterback. But what about this season?  His strange offseason dance with the Packers leadership can be traced to the decision not to go for a touchdown from the eight yard-line, down eight with 2:09 left in the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC championship game.

So now, as it looks like this is the last ride for Rodgers and the Packers, what does that mean for 2021 fantasy projections and where should you draft him?

Before fully committing to playing in 2021, around about a month ago, Rodgers was ranked a solid QB8 in projections around the fantasy football universe.  Fantasy Pros, Fantasy Football Index, Football Outsiders all had Rodgers pegged there. 

Today, with concerns about his unavailability now put to rest, Rodgers is steady at QB7 on ADP consensus rankings, just ahead of Russell Wilson and behind Justin Herbert.  

But should you believe in Rodgers?  2020 gave you few reasons not to do so. Rodgers finished second in the NFL, behind only Patrick Mahomes, in Football Outsiders’ DYAR stat and he led in DVOA and QBR.  Yes, he still has it. 

Additionally, the Packers stepped up both their motion and play-action play from 2019, positive trends in the dynamic offense department.  The Packers also boast one of the best supporting casts for Rodgers, with Devante Adams, Robert Tonyon, and Aaron Jones all finishing at the top or near the top of their positions in advanced metrics.

All that behind Rodgers, as well as a “Last Dance” to bid farewell to Green Bay, you do not have to reach Rodgers in the draft and still get a bargain.  Our own Aaron Bland, in this year’s Fantasy Football Index, had Rodgers ranked fourth on his list, and was an outlier on the high side as other owners seemed to have a short memory of Rodgers’ excellence in 2020 or simply do not believe he will land that high again.

We have already set up Rodgers’ current ADP as the QB7in both 10 and 12-team formats and that is where he is landing in most projection models as well.  Considering his upside shown last season, this is an exciting potential for value, if you have the guts to wait to get the best value slot for him.

In 1-QB leagues, owners will typically wait, and since every league is different you do not have to stick to ADP to decide when you pull the trigger on your QB.  The better strategy is watching the draft to see when the tier “above” Rodgers begins to go and then fire away. 

Right now, the canaries in the draft coal mine are Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert, currently going 5th and 6th among QBs.  Concerns about Prescott’s health may make drop his ADP closer to Rodgers in the next month.  So once those guys come of the board, be ready. Russell Wilson is commonly going around Rodgers, so if you want to head into 2021 with the Packers QB as your QB1, you need to be ready to pull the lever once Herbert and Prescott come off the board. 

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